Trump faces his next midterm powder keg in Georgia’s GOP Senate primary, a battleground split among Republicans — and even the president himself.
The competitive three-way primary between former football coach Derek Dooley and Republican Georgia Reps. Buddy Carter and Mike Collins is hardly a surprise, as Georgia has remained contested terrain over the past three election cycles.
The trio is vying for the chance to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in 2026. As the race begins to take shape, President Donald Trump has yet to weigh in on the GOP primary, though early dynamics have already added intrigue. Longtime political adviser who has run several statewide campaigns, Jay Morgan, described the moment in the race to the Daily Caller as “the calm before the storm.”
GEORGIA PRIMARIES
SENATE
🟥 Mike Collins: 30%
🟥 Buddy Carter: 16%
🟥 Derek Dooley: 10%
⬜ Not sure: 40%GOVERNOR
🟥 Burt Jones: 21%
🟥 Rick Jackson: 20%
🟥 Brad Raffensperger: 11%
🟥 Chris Carr: 6%
⬜ Not sure: 38%
——
🟦 Keisha Lance Bottoms: 35%
🟦 Geoff Duncan: 13%
🟦… pic.twitter.com/D3CsaWiTSO— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) March 5, 2026
Like the Texas Senate GOP primary, Georgia features a contentious three-way Republican Senate race with no Trump endorsement and a 50% threshold to avoid a runoff, though, unlike Texas, no Republican is challenging a sitting incumbent. (RELATED: Ken Paxton Reveals The One Thing That May Get Him To Drop Out Of Brutal Senate Race)
Republican Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who is term-limited and set to leave office after 2026, moved early in the current race by endorsing Dooley shortly after the former football coach entered the Senate contest in August 2025 — a notable move ahead of any endorsement from Trump.
A GOP strategist familiar with the race told the Daily Caller that Kemp’s decision to stay out of the Senate race and then quickly endorse Dooley was not well received by those inside the Trump administration. (RELATED: Derek Dooley Enters Contested Georgia Senate Republican Primary)
“You can imagine how that was received in the White House when Kemp tries to rebuild this connection, then tells the president, ‘No, I’m not running — and I’m also picking a nominee.’ That wasn’t their favorite move of all time,” the strategist said.
The relationship between Trump and Kemp could best be compared to a cold war, with the divide becoming especially clear after the 2020 election, when disputes over election fraud claims created a rift that lingered through the 2024 cycle and still shows fault lines today.
That election — held during the COVID-19 pandemic — was followed by Republicans losing both of Georgia’s Senate seats, sending Ossoff and Raphael Warnock to Washington after runoff victories. The tensions carried into a contentious 2022 midterm cycle, when Kemp and Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger won reelection, while Warnock defeated Trump-backed Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker.
The 2024 election seemed to show mends in the cracks with Trump and Kemp, as GOP powerbroker backroom talks seemed to pay off.
By the 2024 election, however, signs of a thaw began to emerge after behind-the-scenes efforts by GOP power brokers helped ease tensions.
According to the book, “2024: How Trump Retook the White House and the Democrats Lost America,” by reporters Josh Dawsey, Tyler Pager and Isaac Arnsdorf, Steve Witkoff met privately with Kemp to broker a truce after Trump sharply criticized the governor at an Aug. 3 Atlanta campaign event, calling him “disloyal” and an “average governor,” according to a Politico report.
Republican South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham reportedly worked behind the scenes to smooth things over, ultimately arranging for Kemp to appear on Fox News’ Hannity with host Sean Hannity, where he publicly endorsed Trump. This prompted a conciliatory Truth Social post that effectively sealed a ceasefire that has largely held, though it has drawn renewed scrutiny following Kemp’s early endorsement in the 2026 Senate race.
When asked about Kemp’s early endorsement of Dooley and the strategy behind it, a Georgia political operative said, “Yeah, personally, I think it’s just being dumb. I know that’s kind of harsh. I think it’s a combination of hubris and underestimating the competition.”
.@DerekDooleyGA tells @RuthlessPodcast what nine years under Coach Nick Saban taught him:
“You either produced or you weren’t there for long.”
“It always starts with leadership because leadership sets the tone.” pic.twitter.com/EObYUh9HZj
— Dooley War Room (@DooleyWarRoom) February 20, 2026
Trump has publicly acknowledged that Kemp has personally lobbied him to back Derek Dooley, whom the governor has promoted as his preferred candidate and an outsider in the race, according to a separate AJC report.
While many expect this year’s GOP primary to head to a runoff — and with Trump yet to make an endorsement — some remain unconvinced that Dooley has the Republican nomination secured, even with Kemp’s backing. (RELATED: Six Primaries That May Determine The Future Of The GOP After Trump)
“There’s a runoff, so you don’t need to have the most votes on the first day. Derek Dooley is not exactly lighting the world on fire,” the GOP strategist told the Caller.
Most recently, during a Feb. 19 stop in Rome, the president declined to endorse a candidate in the Republican U.S. Senate race, though he did call Collins to the stage. At the start of his campaign, Collins rolled out a grassroots organization across all 159 of Georgia’s counties to support his Senate bid, according to a report from The Hill.
Dooley remained in the crowd, while Carter was the only candidate absent. A campaign spokesperson told the Caller that the congressman had a previously scheduled campaign event and that the White House had been informed.
Although not present, Carter had a meeting Feb. 3 with Trump at the White House to discuss his Senate bid, according to a Bloomberg Government report.
Dooley, unlike the other two GOP candidates, has never held public office and has no voting record — a trait that carries both advantages and drawbacks. Supporters argue this works in his favor, as Democrats cannot weaponize his past against him.
“Democrats can’t take past votes and try to beat him over the head with them because he’s got the Trump factor of being a political outsider, and that is helpful. Instead, voters are going to listen to him and see his actions now, and I think that’s very beneficial in terms of how that plays with GOP primary voters,” a source close to the Dooley campaign told the Caller.
Even with the perks of being a political outsider, Dooley did not vote in either the 2016 or 2020 presidential elections, including when Trump lost to Democrat Joe Biden, according to a CBS News report.
By contrast, both Collins and Carter have supported Trump since he entered politics in 2016. Dooley resumed voting in 2022, backing Kemp for reelection and casting his ballot for Trump in 2024. (RELATED: GOP Senate Frontrunner’s Top Aide May Have Illegally Abused Resources, Given Special Favors, Ethics Watchdog Says)
Morgan further argued that Dooley’s image as a political outsider has blurred into something more problematic, arguing that revelations he failed to vote have raised concerns among many in Georgia, particularly within the Republican base, which has endured years of internal party turmoil.
‼️🚨🇺🇸🍑 PRESIDENT TRUMP IS ASKED ABOUT CANDIDATE FOR SENATE MIKE COLLINS: At the Varsity restaurant in Rome Georgia, President Trump signed hats. Georgia voter: “Mike Collins.” President Trump: “He’s a friend of mine. He’s a good guy.” Georgia voter: “We love him… Mike Collins… pic.twitter.com/aNCaZIQOii
— Lynn (@Lynnrx52) February 20, 2026
“There’s one thing about being an outsider; there’s another thing about being totally disconnected and not caring about the outcome — which is, if you don’t bother to vote, then you don’t care,” Morgan told the Caller. “I think it’s one of the reasons he has had a hard time getting up off the floor in this race. When that came out, it was really easy for a lot of hardcore activists — given how hard it has been for the party in Georgia at this point — to dismiss him.”
Dooley has publicly addressed his record as a voter stating he became politically engaged during the Biden presidency, citing concerns over border enforcement, economic policy and support for transgender athletes — issues he has also used to criticize Ossoff, according to CBS News.
A source close to the Dooley campaign told the Caller that concerns about his past voting record largely stem from his years in coaching, when frequent relocations were part of the job. The source argued that many voters understand the demands of that career and do not view it as disqualifying.
“I really don’t think that that’s gonna be a major factor. He has taken that argument head on. He has explained it, and a lot of voters understand you’re moving around a lot as a coach.”
With just two months until the May 19 primary, Georgia watches for Trump’s move, wondering if the GOP contest will erupt or remain cordial, test Republicans’ ability to sustain post-2024 momentum without him on the ballot, navigate a possible runoff, and respond as the 2026 midterms approach — all while the administration quietly pursues its objectives.
While the administration has not publicly stated its position, it may already know what it wants.
“We’re getting to countdown to that time where there are no more games,” a source familiar with the race told the Caller. “Look, the White House knows what they want to do now.”
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