The Political Upstarts That May Decide Israel’s Election

The first one, Amcha Yisrael (People of Israel), was formed in August by Ofer Winter, a former brigadier general in his mid-fifties. Winter, a stern nationalist who famously encouraged the “voluntary” migration of Palestinians from Gaza, represents a new generation of military leaders who grew up on Jewish settlements and belong to the Religious Zionist movement. For months, he seemed to have electoral momentum—but his numbers dipped recently, as he declared an unequivocal allegiance to Netanyahu. “Winter is an enigma,” Amnon Abramovich, a veteran commentator on Israel’s mainstream Channel 12, told me. “He entered politics because of October 7th, with a slate of candidates who were not in charge on October 7th, but he pledged to go only with the Prime Minister of October 7th.” Abramovich said that Winter’s supporters wish he hadn’t tied his political fate to Netanyahu: “If he were smart—and he is not smart—he would have vowed that he would go according to principles and not according to people.”

Winter’s support comes overwhelmingly from voters who previously cast ballots for Likud or one of its coalition parties, Abramovich said. After the catastrophe that befell Israel on the coalition’s watch, many of those voters would likely have stayed home this time if not for a candidate like Winter—which led many observers to suspect that Netanyahu had encouraged him to run in the first place. But as polls began to suggest that Winter’s party may not gain enough votes to enter the parliament—that he might be “wasting” right-wing ballots—Netanyahu embarked on a campaign to force him from the race. It recently emerged that Netanyahu had met with a rabbi close to Winter, hoping that he could persuade Winter to drop out. “Netanyahu is right to be fearful,” Abramovich said. “He sees a scenario in which Winter brings in two to three per cent and still fails to pass.”

The second party, announced just last month, is an alliance between a center-right faction called the New Economic Party, which is focussed on pocketbook issues, and another one, the Reservists, which is intent on making the military draft mandatory for everyone—including ultra-Orthodox men, who are currently exempt. The alliance’s leader, Yoaz Hendel, is more sophisticated than Winter, and more telegenic: in campaign appearances, he presents himself as part tech executive, part combat soldier. He served as a senior aide to Netanyahu and as a communications minister under both Netanyahu and Naftali Bennett. Since leaving Netanyahu’s office, he has become a prominent critic.

“We’re the protest vote,” Hendel told me by phone recently. He said that his target voters were Israelis under the age of forty: reserve-duty soldiers with young families who are buckling under the high cost of living and disillusioned with the government’s promises of security. “We want to convince everyone in the State of Israel not to vote for Netanyahu,” he said. “I think he is responsible for October 7th.” Still, Hendel was quick to add that he had no qualms about praising Netanyahu where he felt it was due, as in the case of the Israeli operation that blew up Hezbollah militants’ pagers in Lebanon and Syria two years ago.

The Reservists Party has attracted roughly equal support from the pro-Netanyahu and the anti-Netanyahu blocs. Abramovich calls it a “splits party”—“one leg here and one there.” The ruling coalition and its opposition have thus largely spared Hendel the barbed political attacks that they direct at their enemies.

But it is unclear how Hendel would align himself after the election. He does not endorse the opposition motto “Just not Bibi.” He told me, “I am concerned with how to establish a Zionist state. If [Netanyahu] insists on staying with ultra-Orthodox parties, I will not join him. By the same token, if Eisenkot joins Arab parties that do not denounce Hamas, then I am not there, either.” He is also unwilling to contribute to a minority government—an increasingly likely scenario, in which Eisenkot fails to secure a majority but still manages to form a coalition with the support of Arab parties. As Hendel sees it, “You put together a government like that and you’re out in about two weeks, while giving Netanyahu seventy seats in the next election.”