France’s Emmanuel Macron Faces ‘Chaos’ After Ally Is Dealt Devastating Blow In Vote

French President Emmanuel Macron is facing a new political headache after his ally, Prime Minister Francois Bayrou, suffered a resounding defeat on Monday, predictably losing a confidence vote in Parliament and leaving the French president looking weak as the country seems increasingly ungovernable.

Bayrou called the vote to force lawmakers to get behind his deeply unpopular 2026 budget, which included approximately $52 billion worth of cuts and the elimination of two federal holidays, among other austerity measures to address the country’s fiscal issues. France’s mounting debt stood at 114% of GDP at the end of the first quarter of 2025.

The result? Just 194 lawmakers voted in Bayrou’s favor in the 577-seat National Assembly, dealing a devastating blow to the centrist politician.

Bayrou submitted his resignation on Tuesday after just nine months in power, plunging the country into a fresh political crisis.

“It is the first time in the history of the Fifth Republic that a prime minister loses a vote of no confidence,” Tara Varma, a visiting fellow in the Center of the United States and Europe at Brookings, told HuffPost.

“But again, not so surprising, considering he had a minority government and the country was stuck. I think what is worrisome now is that we are going to remain in a situation of political instability, if not chaos, complete chaos for now,” Varma added.

AP Photo/Christophe Ena

Macron announced his loyalist and former conservative Sébastien Lecornu as Bayrou’s successor on Tuesday. Lecornu, who most recently held the post of defense minister, will be France’s fifth prime minister in less than two years.

Lecornu will have a massive challenge on his hands, given the need to unite Parliament around a new budget — a task Macron has asked him to prioritize ahead of naming his Cabinet — while the public seems increasingly unhappy with its leadership.

Amid this tension, the 66 lawmakers who make up Parliament’s swing block of socialists are the ones to watch, according to Mujtaba Rahman, the managing director of Eurasia Group’s analysis and advisory work on Europe. Neither the far right nor the far left has any appetite to work with another prime minister hand-picked by Macron, Rahman told HuffPost.

“The only way out of the impasse is for the new leader of the minority government to work with the moderate socialists, try and deliver a budget that will deliver some consolidation,” Rahman said.

Rahman predicts France is unlikely to be on solid political footing until a new presidential election, currently set for 2027.

“The current political equilibrium is unlikely to be resolved without Macron enabling an early presidential election, which he won’t do,” Rahman said.

Aaron Schwartz/CNP/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Many attribute the current deadlock to Macron’s gamble to call an early parliamentary election following his party’s poor performance in the European elections. His call backfired spectacularly — the vote delivered a hung Parliament and saw his party lose ground to the far right and the far left, prompting the current deadlock.

“This is a one-man-made mistake,” Varma said. “The country is still basically

paying for that now, and might continue struggling with the situation until the presidential election.”

Macron’s move to call the early parliamentary vote was a display of arrogance, said Kathryn Kleppinger, an associate professor of French and Francophone studies and international affairs at George Washington University.

“He not only lost in a numbers game, but he also lost in the public perception, and I think that’s where kind of both of those factors are playing in now, where he doesn’t have the numbers, but he also doesn’t have really any public support for anything that he has done,” Kleppinger said.

Macron, who is limited by the French constitution to two consecutive terms and will be ineligible to run in the next presidential race, seems unwilling to resign, at least for now. A recent poll showed 77% of respondents disapprove of his performance as president.

However, Macron may consider another presidential run in the future, meaning he is “not really willing to get his hands dirty” to resolve the crisis, Varma said, adding that he risks further emboldening Le Pen’s National Rally party.

AP Photo/Thibault Camus

“This is where I fear that the resentment against him might increase in weeks and months to come, and I particularly fear that it’s going to give more leeway to the [National Rally] and more opportunities for the [National Rally] to come to power,” Varma told HuffPost.

In the meantime, Macron’s weakness domestically is likely to impact his ability to act on the international stage as Europe faces massive challenges, including responding to Russia’s war in Ukraine, Kleppinger warned.

“If he can’t get the budget, for example, to increase defense spending, then he can’t act in the same way he’s acted with Ukraine,” Kleppinger said of Macron. “He can’t negotiate with American President Donald Trump in the same way. It kind of impacts the European Union’s ability as an actor as a whole.”